Social Bubble Could Be Limited To Just 10 Family And Friends

Social bubbles could be limited to fewer than ten people and super-spreader indoor events could be banned until well into 2021 to avoid a second peak of coronavirus infections, under scientists' proposals to government. 

Britain could face an 'exponential growth' in Covid-19 cases if groups of more than ten are allowed to get together, according to the results of two studies.

The country won't be able to return to 'normal' until a vaccine is found, according to Dr Mike Lonergan, senior author of a study by the Division of Molecular and Clinical Medicine at the University of Dundee. 

He told MailOnline the only way lockdown can be safely eased is if people keep only 10 per cent of their former social lives.

'It doesn't look like it's possible to go back to how things were before. It looks hard to believe we'll do a tenth of the things we were once doing,' he said.

Weddings, birthdays and funerals could result in the R-rate - the number of people one person can infect - sky rocketing, the Sunday Times reports. 

Senior epidemiologist Adam Kucharski has warned Britain could face 'exponential growth' in Covid-19 cases if groups of people start getting together for celebrations or religious services. 

Dr Lonergan explained that if a person went to the pub every day for ten days before lockdown. Now they could only safely go once. 

'There's no end point to it. If we want things to be stable they need to be how they are now, in lockdown. This will have to stay until something drastic changes.'






Senior epidemiologist Adam Kucharski has warned Britain could face 'exponential growth' in Covid-19 cases if groups of people start getting together. Pictured, people social distance as they gathered for a street party in Clapham on April 25


Dr Lonergan said the world was 'lucky' social-distancing has been able to curb the virus, because it was 'barely' enough.   

He added that once the number of infections rises, kynghidongduong.vn it will 'take quite a lot to claw it back' because the effect of social-distancing on reducing infections has been so slow. 

'Look at where these super-spreading events occur, it's often at family gatherings and meals and weddings and parties and all these things that socially we want to happen,' Dr Kucharski told The Sunday Times. 






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But being outside, for physical activity or even non-contact sports, could be okay because the virus is less likely to spread, the research showed. 

'Going to the park to exercise — that's something where the transmission risk is probably very low if people are sensible but obviously has enormous health and wellbeing benefits,' the epidemiologist said.

Dr Kuckarski's team at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine found the usual infection rate, known as the R-rate, sees one person spread the virus to an average of three others.






Dr Kucharski is author of bestselling book about epidemics The Rules of Contagion


The R-rate currently stands at around 0.7, which crucially falls below the Government goal to keep it below one. The list of five requirements for easing lockdown includes a low R-rate. 

But when large groups meet in badly ventilated environments, such as churches, the infection rate soars and the virus spreads three times faster, the study suggests.  

The findings mean going to church or celebrating birthdays could put thousands of people at risk because of the increased rate of infections. 

But gatherings where people stay at a distance apart from each other and stay outside could be allowed. 

The Mail on Sunday reported plans likely to be introduced for easing lockdown later this month will mean people can exercise several times each day.

They'll also be allowed to drive to the countryside and outdoor spaces for walks and picnics. 

However, they will only be allowed to do so with members of their household and must stay at least two metres (6ft 6in) away from other groups.

Dr Kucharski, author of bestselling book about epidemics The Rules of Contagion, said: 'As soon as measures are lifted, we risk being back where we started, facing exponential growth.' 

He added that this meant social distancing restrictions would have to stay in place until at least next year, but ultimately it would be a Government decision.






Brits will have to 'substantially' reduce the level of social interaction they were having before the pandemic to ensure the number of cases doesn't start to rise out of control. Pictured, a street party in Clapham on April 25


'It seems likely that these kinds of close interactions between people will need limitations,' he said.

The findings of the studies are due to be discussed at a Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) meeting next week. 

What action is taken next will be up to the Government and it is still unknown how the UK will exit lockdown, but Dr Kucharski said social distancing is likely to stay in place for some time to come.    

Social contact, defined by the Dundee University study as a conversation or physical touch, should be kept at no more than ten people each day, the authors said, to make contact tracing possible. 

Another possible was to ease lockdown could be to introduce a system of letting people know when they've been in contact with someone who has the virus.

But contract tracing, which has been praised as the method used by South Korea to keep the disease under control, can only be implemented if the number of people an infected person comes into contact with is 'substantially reduced'. 






Last week Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon suggested people in Scotland could soon be allowed to meet a small 'bubble' of friends and family outside of their households under plans to ease the lockdown gradually. Pictured, people clapping for carers in their street


Brits will have to cut their 'normal' level of social interaction to ensure the number of cases doesn't start to rise out of control. 

Under an 'optimistic' approach, the authors said, people could choose between five and ten people to interact with outside of work, school or home. 

In research published last week Dr Kucharski's team found the transmission rate while exercising in a park was 'very low' and those under the age of 20 were 75 per cent likely to be asymptomatic.

While symptoms are much more likely for over 70s, who have only a 24 per cent chance of being asymptomatic - where they have the virus and can pass it on to others but have no symptoms.  

Yesterday the UK announced another 621 deaths, taking Britain's official fatality toll to 28,131 - edging the country closer to becoming Europe's worst-hit nation. 

Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon suggested people in Scotland could soon be allowed to meet a small 'bubble' of friends and family outside of their households under plans to ease the lockdown gradually.













On April 24 Ms Sturgeon said other countries are beginning to look at expanding the definition of 'households' to allow small gatherings of people and that Scotland could do the same. 

The SNP leader said any such scheme would only work if people stuck to meeting the same group each time as she said she understood the 'anguish' of not being able to see loved ones. 

She also suggested people who live alone could 'match up with somebody else who is on their own or a couple of other people'. 

Britain's Prime Minister Boris Johnson has not spoken of plans to introduce social bubbles, but is planning to reveal his 'whack-a-mole' strategy to ease the coronavirus lockdown some time next week.

He is expected to reveal his roadmap of proposals to very carefully and slowly lift the restriction that have been in place since March 23, but come down hard on any secondary hotspots that emerge.

It came as the Welsh government announced some of its stay-at-home measures are being toughened up but also followed Ms Sturgeon in publishing a roadmap for how to eventually get out of lockdown. 

Northern Ireland has similarly signalled it could lift restrictions independently of the rest of the UK with Downing Street now under growing pressure to set out its own strategy for getting life back to normal amid fears England could be left in limbo. 








Nicola Sturgeon today said the Scottish government is looking at plans to allow people to meet with a 'bubble' of friends or family 


UK ministers, led by Health Secretary Matt Hancock, continue to insist the focus must remain on stopping the spread of the virus but the actions of the devolved administrations mean Number 10 could ultimately be forced to change tack.  

Welsh First Minister Mark Drakeford said the aim of his government's end-of-lockdown 'framework' will be to 'find a way for people in Wales to live and work alongside coronavirus' and to enable a 'gradual return to something resembling normal life'. 

But he also moved to tighten current guidance on staying at home to make sure people stick to it and do not linger outside after completing essential tasks like shopping or exercise.

The Welsh government advice is being tweaked with the requirement for people not to leave the place where they live now becoming a requirement 'not to leave or remain away from that place'. 

A further crackdown on people visiting second homes in the country is also being considered with the Welsh government asking the police if extra restrictions are needed. 






Ms Sturgeon told BBC Radio Scotland's Good Morning Scotland programme that any proposal to let people see friends or family would have to be based on them seeing the same group each time. Pictured, a family at their home in north London


But some rules are being formally loosened with 'click and collect' services allowed to open as Tour du thuyền Hạ Long giá rẻ as they apply two metre social distancing rules. 

Meanwhile, rules were also relaxed for people with particular health conditions or disabilities so they can leave home for exercise more than once a day. 

It was hoped this would help families with children with learning disabilities and autism in particular.   

Ms Sturgeon told BBC Radio Scotland's Good Morning Scotland programme that any proposal to let people see friends or family would have to be based on them seeing the same group each time. 






People took part in a coronavirus anti-lockdown, anti-vaccine, anti-5G and pro-freedom protest near Scotland Yard, the headquarters of London's Metropolitan Police Service, in London yesterday


Last month she revealed her framework for relaxing lockdown measures in Scotland but warned some restrictions could stay in place until at least the end of the year.

The First Minister stressed no decisions have been made on such a 'bubble' arrangement and that she wants to have an open conversation with the public about the way forward. 

Ms Sturgeon said: 'I know from my own parents who are not seeing their grandkids just now, I understand the anguish of that.

'We're all missing seeing our loved ones so we all want to get beyond that as quickly as possible.






Games of Bingo were held by David Walsh (left) on a street in Liverpool, Britain, 25 April 2020, as people try to keep themselves entertained


'Every country is going through these decisions, none of us are through this pandemic yet, but some countries are starting to look at slightly expanding what people would define as their household - encouraging people who live alone to maybe match up with somebody else who is on their own or a couple of other people to have almost kind of bubbles of people.'

She added: 'And the key thing there is, if you're seeing maybe one or two more people outside your household, it's got to be the same people on a day-to-day, week-to-week basis so you're still limiting the ability for the virus to transmit.

'Now, none of these are fixed decisions yet, but these are all the kind of things we're trying to work through.






People run past a social distancing sign at the entrance of Regent's Park, as the lockdown continues due to the coronavirus outbreak, in London, Sunday, April 26, 2020







Social distancing is practised on a park bench as a man reads a book as a couple exchange a kiss, in London Fields park in east London on April 25, 2020







Members of the public follow social distancing guidelines and queue outside a Homebase store in Leicester yesterday


'What we're trying to do is to do is, how do we get a semblance of normality back into our lives because the lockdown - it is essential that people stick with it just now - but it's having consequences of its own.'

In Belgium, experts are reportedly considering allowing private gatherings of 10 people on weekends - but it would have to be the same people each week.

The First Minister also said the Scottish government will increase talks with councils about children returning to school. The need to keep social distancing in place will put an upper limit on class sizes, she said.

She said: 'So if it's the case that we need to keep kids in school two metres apart from each other then that will put an upper limit on how many people can be in a classroom.

'So do we have to take classes divide them into two, where half of the class is there one week, the other half the other week or one half in the morning and the afternoon? 


































Ministers could be preparing to lift restrictions on outdoor activities such as picnics as the first stage in relaxing the lockdown rules


'These are the kind of things where we're having to think through.' 

Mr Drakeford today set out an initial blueprint for how to lead Wales out of the coronavirus lockdown. 

He said the devolved administration's approach would be guided by seven tests designed to assess when and how stay-at-home restrictions are lifted.  

Mr Drakeford said: 'Our approach to date has been one of lockdown. We have taken unprecedented steps to protect everyone, but particularly those most at risk from serious illness.
















The Prime Minister (right), whose son Wilfred was revealed to the world by mum Carrie Symonds yesterday (left)  is expected to reveal his roadmap of proposals to very carefully and slowly lift the restriction in place since late March







Boris Johnson plans to reveal his 'whack-a-mole' strategy to ease the coronavirus lockdown and put the UK economy back into gear


'This has helped the NHS prepare and cope with coronavirus and, even though we have sadly seen more than 640 people die, it has helped to save many more lives. But this strategy comes with its own costs to people's wider health and wellbeing and long-term costs to our economy.

'We are keeping these regulations under constant review. We know coronavirus will be with us for a long time yet but we want to see whether there are things we can do while we continue to tackle the virus and while the search for better treatments and a vaccine continue.'

Mr Drakeford's seven questions include whether easing a restriction would have a negative effect on containing the virus, whether loosening a measure could be easily reversed and whether it has a positive economic benefit.

The Welsh approach will be underpinned by a 'Wales-wide programme of surveillance, case identification, and contract tracing'.

He added: 'We will need to have some sort of restrictions in place for some time yet to continue to control the spread of the virus and reduce community transmission. This framework will help us determine what is right for Wales.






Welsh First Minister Mark Drakeford today announced coronavirus lockdown rules are changing in Wales in order to stop people staying outside for too long


'There is a long road ahead of us towards recovery to pre-pandemic levels, but if we continue to work together, I hope we will be able to make changes to the restrictions and see a gradual return to something resembling normal life.'

As well as setting out a path to the end of lockdown, Mr Drakeford said some measures needed to be strengthened now to stop the spread of the disease. 

He said: 'The restrictions are staying in place, which mean you must stay at home to save lives and protect the NHS.